Grahamstown’s weather can be fickle at times, regardless of the month or season. Some residents smile and say the city is known to have four seasons in one day.
Grahamstown’s weather can be fickle at times, regardless of the month or season. Some residents smile and say the city is known to have four seasons in one day.
With spring around the corner we stopped to ask one of Grahamstown’s environmental experts what we can expect and more specifically, if and how climate change affects our seasons in the Eastern Cape.
With reference to a 2014 scientific journal by MacKellar, New, and Jack, entitled "Observed and modelled trends in rainfall and temperature for South Africa: 1960-2010", Sheona Shackleton, lecturer in the Environmental Science Department at Rhodes University, spoke about the perceptions around climate change.
“In terms of the observed trends right across the country, there’s an average warming,” said Shackleton.
Summarising the journal article, Shackleton explained that “the mean (average) minimum and mean maximum daily temperatures have increased both in summer and winter across the country.
“In some places this effect has been more dramatic than others.”
We asked how and if climate change is affecting Grahamstown and the Eastern Cape. Shackleton said that Grahamstown, in terms of its geographic location is “an interesting area [when looking at climate]because it is almost on a transition.”
Again, to reference the article, MacKellar et al say that the highest and lowest daily temperatures in ‘zone 5,’ which is the majority of the Eastern Cape and southern part of KwaZulu Natal, “have generally increased in all seasons.”
Shackleton explained that the most common perceptions around climate change is seasonal shifts. She said that “greater temperature increases in winter and autumn,” have been predicted by the modelled trends.
In light of this warming, “what you’re probably seeing is less clear differentiation between the seasons, particularly those in-between seasons of Autumn and Spring.” So at a time like this, the transition between seasons might not be as clear as it used to be, coupled with a difficulty in feeling the gradual change.
These trends are based on measured averages which Shackleton explained are difficult to feel. She illustrated this point with reference to her study in the Queenstown area, a couple of years ago, on people’s perceptions on the change in climate. The majority felt that winters were getting colder whilst the observed data showed that “the average trend was towards warmer temperatures.”
The average is, as she says, “gradual” and “difficult to feel”. She elaborated that “the average temperature [also]does not mean that every day is going to be warmer.”
The research that Shackleton has been involved with people’s perceptions of change in climate is evidence of this tangible change. Shackleton explained that her subjects agree across the board “that seasonality is more difficult to define” which boils down to matters concerning their livelihoods such as “a less clear understanding of when to plant crops.”
She explained that if warming continues, farmers could even be faced with “pest-outbreaks or crop-diseases”.
Associated with less defined seasons and temperature changes, is rainfall, and as Shackleton revealed in her study, “people are getting a sense that rains are starting later than they used to.” People operating across a range from subsistence-type homestead gardens to commercial farms are all feeling that there is a shift in rain to later in the season. She added that due to the variability of rainfall it is difficult to see clear trends and even the modelled predictions (based on physics) are hugely variable so it is difficult to predict what is going to happen with rainfall.
In combination, changes in rainfall and temperature are indicators of a struggling planet.
Given that we already have so many water problems, Shackleton poses the question, “what does the future of climate change mean?
On a Grahmstown scale, September and spring means we can expect a peak in rainfall which will ease off and then increase once again, hopefully.
“There is a sense however, that that September rain is not as reliable as it used to be,” said Shackleton.
Having been in Grahamstown for around 14 years, Shackleton admitted that she has hardly noticed a clear transformation to spring, in comparison to what she has experienced on the Highveld. Although temperature and rainfall, as indicators of spring, are becoming less reliable, we can start to notice changes in bird and plant life.
Fruit trees are some of the first to flower and the migratory-birds are making their way back, so you are likely to start to hearing calls from the next-door piet-my-vrou in the mornings.
As we know, the weather can turn at any time in Grahamstown and September can be a trickster. Just when you think spring has arrived, there will often be one last cold spell, possibly even snow on the mountains.
In light of spring and the goodness that our planet has in store, we encourage you to consider how each of us have an impact on the planet.
The way we use the planet's resources makes up our environmental footprint. If we continue living the way we do, by 2030 we will need two planets to sustain us.
Climate change and global warming are no longer speculations and neither are they the blabber of ‘conspiracy-theorists.’
Climate change should permeate your every habit and consumer decision.
On a national scale, “climate change poses a significant threat to South Africa’s water resources, food security, health, infrastructure, as well as its ecosystem services and biodiversity.
"Considering South Africa’s high levels of poverty and inequality, these impacts pose critical challenges for national development.” (Ziervogel, G. et al, 2014. Climate change impacts and adaptation in South Africa. WIREs Climate Change)
Take the first easy step to living a more conscious and sustainable life by calculating your carbon footprint here
