By Gcina Ntsaluba
Public confidence in the South African Police Service (SAPS) has plummeted to historic lows, with just 22% of adults expressing trust in the country’s law enforcement agency, according to new data released by the Human Sciences Research Council (HSRC).
The latest findings from the South African Social Attitudes Survey (SASAS), spanning 27 years of tracking from 1998 to 2024/25, reveal a stark deterioration in police-public relations that researchers describe as a “deepening legitimacy crisis” affecting all nine provinces.
Trust never above 50%
Perhaps most striking is that throughout the entire survey period, public trust in SAPS never exceeded 50% – a threshold typically considered necessary for effective policing. The current 22% figure represents the lowest point since systematic tracking began, with distrust now reaching 62% of the adult population.
“This suggests that the issue of police legitimacy is by no means a new one,” the HSRC researchers noted, but emphasised that recent years have witnessed an unprecedented collapse in confidence.
Sharp decline following major events
The data reveals several key inflection points that accelerated the decline in public trust:
- 2011-2013: A sharp drop following the Marikana massacre of August 2012, though confidence temporarily recovered by 2015
- 2021: Trust plummeted to 27% following the July social unrest, when many criticized the police’s poor response to widespread violence and looting
- 2022-2024: Further deterioration to the current low of 22%, potentially linked to rising crime rates
Dr Ben Roberts, Research Director at HSRC, noted that distrust is now “40 percentage points or approximately three times higher than trust,” indicating serious reputational challenges and growing public alienation from law enforcement.
Regional differences
While all provinces have experienced declining trust, significant regional disparities persist. Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal show the lowest confidence levels, with both provinces recording just 18% trust in 2024/25. Historically, the Eastern Cape and Northern Cape maintained higher trust levels, averaging 43% and 42% respectively over the survey period, but even these provinces have seen substantial declines.
By 2024/25, no province recorded trust levels above 30%, with the Northern Cape leading at 30%, followed by North West at 29%, and the Western Cape at 28%.
The factors driving the decline in confidence
The HSRC research identified several interconnected factors contributing to eroding police trust:
Crime and safety concerns: victims of crime show significantly lower trust levels (10 percentage points below average), while fear of crime correlates with reduced confidence in police effectiveness.
Direct police experiences: negative personal encounters with officers directly impact public perceptions, with those reporting unsatisfactory police contact expressing markedly lower trust.
High-profile failures: well-publicised incidents of police brutality, corruption, and operational failures – including the 2021 unrest response – have damaged the institution’s reputation.
Procedural justice issues: public perceptions of police unfairness, disrespect, lack of impartiality, and ineffectiveness in crime prevention all contribute to declining confidence.
Broader democratic decline: researchers found that diminishing trust in democratic institutions generally correlates with reduced police confidence, suggesting systemic governance challenges.
Implications for crime fighting
The researchers warn that continued erosion of police legitimacy threatens the fundamental basis of effective law enforcement. Without public trust, police struggle to secure community co-operation essential for crime prevention and investigation.
“The risk is that low and diminishing confidence in the police, if left unchecked, will also continue to negatively shape views on key elements of police legitimacy, such as a sense of shared moral values and the duty to obey the police,” the report cautioned.
The SASAS survey, conducted annually since 2003 using face-to-face interviews with 2 500 to 3 200 adults nationwide, provides the most comprehensive long-term tracking of South African public attitudes toward policing.
As South Africa grapples with high crime rates and ongoing security challenges, the HSRC findings underscore the urgent need for comprehensive police reform to restore the public’s faith in law enforcement and ensure effective crime reduction efforts.
