By Steven Lang
The ANC in the Makana Municipal area shadowed the party’s poor performance nationally, but not quite as catastrophically. The local ANC dropped from a commanding 62.25% share in the previous national and provincial elections to a narrow majority of 51.6% this year. While the drop of 10.6% would normally be alarming, it is not as harsh as the party’s national loss of 17%.
The local ANC’s performance looks even marginally healthier when compared to the 2021 local elections. In this year’s vote, the local ANC actually improved its position from 50.65% to 51.6%. This slight recovery can be ascribed to the fact that the Makana Citizens Front (MCF) did not participate in this year’s election and that the uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party could not get the same momentum locally (0.99%) as it did in KwaZulu Natal (45%), Mpumalanga (16.8%) or Gauteng (9.77%).
| National and Provincial election results in the Makana Municipal area | ||||
| Party | 2009 | 2014 | 2019 | 2024 |
| ANC | 65.67% | 66.44% | 62.25 | 51.60% |
| DA | 15.66% | 23.72 | 24.28 | 23.09% |
| EFF | – | 3.34% | 8.75 | 14.38% |
| PA | – | – | – | 2.54% |
| ActionSA | – | – | – | 1.72% |
| UDM | 0.69% | 1.66% | 0.64% | 1.31% |
| MK | – | – | – | 0.99% |
In Makana, the DA has been consistently hovering between 23 and 24% in national and provincial elections over the last decade. The party took a hit in the 2021 local elections however, dropping to just over 17%. This was largely due to the impact of the MCF (18.1%) and MIND (1.9%).
| Party | 2021 Local elections | 2024 National Elections |
| ANC | 50.65% | 51.60% |
| MCF | 18.1% | – |
| DA | 17.11% | 23.09% |
| EFF | 5.91% | 14.38% |
| MIND* | 1.9% | – |
| PA | 1.1% | 2.54% |
*MIND – Makana Independent New Deal
It appears that the combined 20% support for the two local parties in 2021, reduced the DA by about six percentage points and the EFF by roughly 8.5 points. The dichotomous support base of the MCF caused it to undermine both the DA and the EFF, two parties with very different world views.
While the number of votes in each ward is not relevant in this election because 2024 is not a local election, it is interesting for the purpose of making comparisons of support in defined areas.
In line with previous elections, the ANC had the most votes in 11 of the 14 wards in the Makana area. The DA had a majority in Wards 4 and 8 while the EFF had the most votes in Ward 12. This last-mentioned area is interesting because support has changed significantly over the years.
In Ward 12 local elections, the DA enjoyed more than two thirds of the vote in 2011 and 2016. This substantial majority was shredded in a by-election in 2019 when the ANC took the ward and then reaffirmed its position in the 2021 local elections. This means that the Ward, dominated by Rhodes University, has gone from the DA to the ANC and now to the EFF.
| Voting in Makana Area | ||||
| Ward No. | Party won | Percentage | Registered voters | Turnout |
| 1 | ANC | 51.59% | 2,307 | 54.36% |
| 2 | ANC | 69.12% | 2,653 | 52.36% |
| 3 | ANC | 49.80% | 4,036 | 53.39% |
| 4 | DA | 64.70% | 5,239 | 61.4% |
| 5 | ANC | 74.79% | 4,068 | 56.34% |
| 6 | ANC | 73.37% | 2,818 | 57.49% |
| 7 | ANC | 71.30% | 2,888 | 52.08% |
| 8 | DA | 51.04% | 3,509 | 50.24% |
| 9 | ANC | 69.04% | 2,336 | 54.75% |
| 10 | ANC | 70.30% | 3,102 | 55.58% |
| 11 | ANC | 77.06% | 2,976 | 56.72% |
| 12 | EFF | 55.07% | 2,422 | 47.65% |
| 13 | ANC | 68.77% | 3,027 | 56.62% |
| 14 | ANC | 55.36% | 2,969 | 56.58% |
A further interesting point in last week’s elections is that while voting went quickly in the majority of voting stations, it was painfully slow in the three wards where the ANC was not dominant. The two wards with the lowest turnouts – Ward 8 and 12 – had incredibly long lines of people waiting to vote. Perhaps the lower turnout was because citizens were reluctant to wait for many hours in order to cast their ballots.
The single voting station in Ward 8, the Hill Street Public Library, had by far the most registered voters with 3,509 and consequently the most votes with 1,750. Many people complained that they had to wait up to seven hours before getting into the voting station that only closed after midnight.
Turnout in Makana was 22,912 votes representing 54.96% of the total number of 41,692 registered voters.
Eastern Cape Legislature
The ANC is still very strong in the Eastern Cape with 62.16% of the vote. In fact it is in this province that the party put in its second strongest performance behind Limpopo where it received 73.3% of the vote – slightly down from 75.5% in 2019.
| Eastern Cape Provincial Legislature | |||
| Party | Votes | Support | Seats |
| ANC | 1 114 294 | 62.16% | 45 |
| DA | 267 007 | 14.89% | 11 |
| EFF | 181 855 | 10.14% | 8 |
| UDM | 66 572 | 3.71% | 3 |
| PA | 41 355 | 2.31% | 2 |
| ATM | 27 761 | 1.55% | 1 |
| MK | 25 904 | 1.44% | 1 |
| VF PLUS | 9 321 | 0.52% | 1 |
While the ANC will easily be able to dominate the provincial legislature, it has been losing support from 79.27% in 2004 and from 68.7% in 2019 to 62.16% this year.
National Perspective
All mainstream media organisations have commented, analysed and dissected almost every aspect of the country’s national and provincial election results. The ANC did worse (40.2%) than most surveys had predicted and the MK produced much better results (14.6%) on the national scale.
| Party | National Support % | National Assembly Seats |
| ANC | 40.18 | 159 |
| DA | 21.81 | 87 |
| MK | 14.58 | 58 |
| EFF | 9.52 | 39 |
| IFP | 3.85 | 17 |
| PA | 2.06 | 9 |
| Others | 31 |
As the ANC has reduced its presence in the National Assembly, the number of parties taking up seats has steadily increased. In 2009 and 2014 there were 13 parties represented in Parliament. In 2019, this number increased to 14 and when the legislative body reconvenes later this month, it will have members from 18 political parties.
(Note: all data sourced from the IEC web site)
