By ROGER ROWSWELL
October rainfall was a rather dismal 32.8mm. The LTA for Oct is 85.1mm and LTMed is 68.8mm.
The annual rainfall for 2021 so far is only 379.1mm with two months to go. either we are in for a massive deluge in the next two months or 2021 could be a record annual low?
The statistics for Oct are; lowest rainfall 17.0mm (2002) and highest rainfall 322.9mm (2012). Rainfall between 25 and 50mm has only occurred five times in the 36-year record.
The meteorological consultants are still forecasting good rains for the eastern parts of the country but they don’t seem to apply to the drought-ridden parts of the Eastern Cape, or what I call the transition area between the summer and winter rainfall areas. In September the Jul/Aug/Sep ONI value increased from -0.4 to -0.5 which is a positive sign of a potential La Nina phase developing.
It appears as though the meteorologists are unable to forecast our weather accurately, this has been apparent for quite some time now. Is it due to weather monitoring stations not being fully operational or is it the meteorological personnel themselves? The YR.NO weather site used to be so accurate but is no longer so which makes me believe it is the weather stations that are in a poor condition.